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  • I'm a Realtor with Prudential California Realty in Turlock, CA. You can read more about me on my bio page.

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June 12, 2008

June 2008 Update: When is the right time to buy an investment home?

(NOTE: This post is geared towards investors ONLY, because it focuses solely on issues of price and timing. If you are buying a home for yourself, you'll want to consider other factors as well, such as the school boundaries, your ideal floorplan, the size of the backyard, etc. If you think of buying your own home just in terms of an investment, you may be sorely disappointed.)


When is the right time to buy an investment home(s)?


Here’s my thought about investment purchase timing: using metrics of inventory/sales and prices, I’m observing that inventory is starting to flatten, sales are definitely rising, and prices are still falling but only very slightly. I think we’re about at the bottom as far as prices go. However, there are some unknowns.

  • Perhaps foreclosures continue to come to market and we run out of first-time homebuyers. It’s hard to quantify but an important question to consider: which will we run out of first? Foreclosures? Or first-time buyers? If we run out of foreclosures first, then we may be at the bottom of the market right now (though we won’t know for sure for several months from now). But if we run out of first-time homebuyers first, then expect prices to take another step southwards. It’s like an endurance contest, and I’m not sure who’ll win.
  • If perception becomes reality, then expect price declines to stop soon. With more and more buyers deciding that this (2008) is the time to buy, they may absorb every bit of inventory as it comes available on the market. I’m seeing some of this already. I have twice as many pendings as I have listings, and most of the still-actives are either overpriced REO listings from unrealistic REO sellers or else homes that nobody seems to want. But the good stuff is going quick, often with multiple offers and with a lot of them over asking price.

Here’s the thing: right now, banks are going off of recent comparable sales which show the trend of lower prices. When pendings are lower still, we have a declining market. But I’m beginning to notice that the newer the pending date, the fewer days on market and better list prices they seem to have. In other words, there may be a potential for arbitrage purchasing right now due to the delay in reliable, confirmed data.

Because it may take another 4-6 months to for today’s listings and pendings to be reflected as sold comparables, during this time many REO sellers will continue with the status quo of declining prices. But once they realize they don’t need to price it lower, because that stuff sold in a week over list price with multiple offers, then the day of the price declines will be gone.


Another question becomes: what then? Will buyers not want to play anymore, walk out on the market and give sellers another dry spell with few sales, and pressure sellers to come down in price again? Or will the herd mentality become “prices are rising again, therefore I should hurry up and buy,” which would sustain further price increases?


One thing I feel pretty confident about: I don’t think we’ll have another 10-20% drop in starter home prices ($150K--$250K). We may on larger, luxury homes, but I think increased demand at the low end is showing enough resistance that it won’t be dropping much more.


Of course, I could be totally wrong… after all, prices went a lot higher and lasted longer than anyone thought, too…

February 16, 2007

Want To Make Lots of Money Buying Foreclosures?

As you probably already know, interest rates have risen for homeowners with adjustable mortgages, causing a wave of foreclosures that we are just now starting to recognize. Late-night infomercial Carleton Sheets fans, this is your lucky day!

Or is it? I'll give you the moral to this story in a nutshell, then you can read on if you like.

Moral to the story: you and everybody else thinks that there's a deal to be found in foreclosures. The problem is, when you and everybody else are seeking for the same deal, prices get bid up to an amount that doesn't allow for nearly as much profit as the hyped-up sources would have you believe.

Think E-Bay. Obscure items that bargain hunters used to find at a flea market are now exposed to the entire world, creating an efficient marketplace. Have you shopped for something on E-Bay recently? It's efficient enough that I find I don't get as good of a deal as I'd like to, precisely because everybody else can see it too.

Finally, going after the REALLY big profit potential situations requires you to take on A TON of risk (oh, and one more thing--you'll often have to have the entire amount of the purchase price in the form of a cashier's check in your hand to do it).

Are you still feeling brave? Then read on. This excerpted article from Wall Street Journal explains the different kinds of opportunities and their risk/reward profiles.



Novices face a host of risks. Foreclosed homes can come with hidden debts. Homeowners generally won't let you inspect the home before you try to buy it out from under them. Not knowing the local rules, which vary from state to state, can also cost you big.

The notion that $250,000 homes can be had for a few thousand dollars "is largely a myth," says Peter O'Connell, a former banker who has invested in foreclosures for years, including near his home in the Florida Keys. "If there is any equity in a house, you're generally not going to get it cheaply."

Here's a primer:

The Process

The process usually begins when mortgagees fall three months behind on payments. The lender sends a default notice to the homeowner and to the county. If the homeowner can't pay up, a foreclosure date is set. County officials handle the auction and use the proceeds to pay off the mortgage and any other debts secured by the house. Leftover money goes to the foreclosed homeowner; leftover debt, in some cases, is the new owner's responsibility.

The mortgage lenders typically bid up to the remaining principal amount plus any foreclosure fees. Their goal is to recoup what they are owed, either from investors bidding more or by buying the home and reselling it. Foreclosed homeowners sometimes join the bidding and win the auction, even though they don't have the money, effectively delaying their eviction until another auction is held.

Investors can get in the game before or after auctions, too. They can try to buy directly from homeowners beforehand or from lenders who win the auction.

What's Available?

Just about every type of home ends up at auctions: wood-frame houses in downtrodden neighborhoods, high-end homes in gated communities, condominiums, mobile homes, partially built residences and vacant land.

To find them, get free foreclosure listings from county court clerks or sheriff's departments; some counties post them online. Commercial services provide access to local and national listings. Foreclosurenet.net provides information on bank-owned real estate for about $30 a month. RealtyTrac.com has nationwide listings of homes in foreclosure and offers geographically tailored email alerts for $50 a month.

Professionals specialize in niches, such as low-income housing or condominiums. Less-seasoned investors should stick with single-family homes in lower-middle- to middle-class neighborhoods, where resale likely will be easier.

Legal Issues

Hidden liens can be a big problem. If a homeowner had two mortgages and defaulted only on the second, the first is still binding. Auction officials aren't obligated to tell you about debts outstanding, so unwary investors could be saddled with having to pay off that first mortgage, generally immediately.

A full-blown title search on a house can cost $400 or more. But for as little as $25, some title companies will do quickie "pencil searches" that detail existing liens -- raw data that you weed through yourself.

In many cases, it is the property's first mortgage in default, in which case subordinate liens are eliminated in foreclosure. But watch out for exceptions: Internal Revenue Service liens and some utility bills will need to be paid off.

Here is another pitfall: Some states give foreclosed homeowners time to reclaim their property by paying the auction price, often plus an additional percentage. In Colorado, they have 75 days (though the state is set to eliminate that grace period). So you could spend tens of thousands of dollars remodeling a house, only to have the original owner grab back the newly improved home.

Investment Stages

Many investors scour default notices in search of homeowners willing to sell cheap before auction. The competition is stiff, given the many services that report new filings to subscribers.

"There are a million investors looking to contact that homeowner with letters and phone calls and drive-bys," says Todd Beitler, president of Real Estate Library, an online provider of foreclosure information (www.trel.com). What's more, homeowners in preforeclosure know their home's value, so don't expect a big bargain.

Preforeclosure investing is medium-risk, medium-return. Executed successfully, an investor could make a 20% to 30% profit, longtime foreclosure investors say.

Buying at auction is riskier. You are typically buying "a mystery box" seen only from the outside, says Ken Kulpa, a real-estate agent specializing in foreclosures around San Jose, Calif. Sometimes, the house is a gem, but other times, there are big, costly problems -- faulty plumbing, a 1950s-era kitchen or a leaky roof.

Then there is the belligerent homeowner who trashes the place on the way out or refuses to vacate, requiring a costly eviction process.

Another risk: In the excitement of bidding, many novices overpay. If you are careful, auction investors can expect to notch gains of 40% to 50% or more, professional investors say.

Most bankers won't finance a foreclosure bid, in part because current owners aren't likely to let them inspect the house to appraise it.

The lowest-risk option is buying foreclosed homes from banks that acquired them at auction. Most major banks list properties they own on their Web sites, and some will provide financing.

Banks often list homes in good condition near market value, so there isn't much upside there. But banks also end up with mediocre properties and some real dogs. You can try to negotiate these houses' prices down to less than the outstanding principal, rehab them and then resell quickly at market value or just below.

Profits on such properties can be in the 15%-to-20% range, experts say. Real Estate Library's Mr. Beitler says this is a good place for novices to start. You won't have title worries, because banks do that work, and you can inspect the house beforehand.

That "will help you gain confidence and experience buying and selling a property, negotiating and closing a deal, and doing the rehab work," he says.

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